Portland Real Estate Market Update: November 2023
I’m going to be honest—until a few days ago, I wasn’t sure if I could muster up anything new and interesting to tell y’all about the market this month (but keep reading for the PLOT TWIST). Rates are high. Demand is relatively low. Inventory is tight, which is keeping prices stable despite the high rates. That’s nothing new. Yaddah yaddah yaddah….
While there is absolutely some validity to the “Date the rate, Marry the house” concept that realtors have been shouting from the rooftops for the past year (aka “buy now while competition is low and plan to refinance to a lower payment once rates drop”), I honestly don’t believe that strategy makes financial sense for everyone. So, I’ve advised my buyers purchasing with loans to keep an eye out for the good deals (because they ARE out there right now!) but not to feel the need to rush into buying unless one of the following applies:
1) They need to buy a house ASAP due to life circumstances
2) They find a house they really love with monthly payments they feel comfortable with.
I want my buyers making informed decisions that benefit them, even if means less frequent paychecks for me. I’ll survive!
The caveat: There will be a time when the Fed gets inflation under control and rates roll back. The major media outlets will start making news of it and the general public will start feeling comfortable buying homes again. When that time comes it will mean more competition, more bidding wars, less negotiating power, and higher overall prices. In other words, if you wait too long, it might backfire.
And now, the PLOT TWIST!
This week, we saw significant movement with rates following the release of the most recent jobs report, marking what MIGHT be the turning point in the market we’ve all been waiting for. The economy added 101,000 FEWER jobs in the latest reporting period than previously estimated. That means that the rate hikes are finally doing what the Federal Reserve has been aiming for—to slow down the labor market. As a response, mortgage interest rates dropped this week to the lowest level since March 2023, when the housing market saw a brief surge in activity rife with bidding wars. The Fed might not cut the federal reserve rate this year (that’s what you’re likely hearing about in the news!), BUT it’s important to understand that mortgage rates are NOT directly tied to that. While rates won’t drop to 5% overnight, all signs point to them beginning their downward trajectory regardless of whether or not the Federal Funds rate is lowered in 2023. It’s a little soon to make any leaping declarations, but I’ve been telling my clients to keep an eye out for the point when rates continue to inch downward, because it means the market will soon start shifting as a result.
My Predictions
While nobody has a crystal ball, I predict that the housing market will remain relatively chill for the remainder of 2023 due to 1) the holiday season and 2) the fact that rates are still relatively high…for now. If the current trends continue, I expect to see a bump in activity after the holidays, making way for an eventful spring market as rates continue to drop and Portlanders emerge from their winter cocoons. In other words—if you’ve been waiting for a sweet spot where rates are relatively palatable but competition is still suppressed, I think that window is approaching (and it might be relatively short-lived)!
For my sellers out there…
I’m sure you’re asking what this means for you! If you’re selling without buying and your timeline is flexible, spring or summer will likely be fruitful times to list your home. If you are selling AND buying, the best strategy will depend on your personal circumstances because anything that benefits on one side will be a challenge on the other end. For the folks lucky enough to be able to purchase during this market lull but wait for demand to increase before listing, you’re golden—you should have a lot of gratitude for that!
The only thing that nobody seems to be talking about is whether or not there is a backlog of sellers who have been waiting for the market to pick up before listing, which could increase the supply/inventory. I know I personally have a few sellers that are holding out until spring to list. This is something that I’ll want to keep an eye on, but as of now I don’t foresee there being enough inventory to make a significant dent in the market. After all, most sellers are also buyers. Furthermore, we have some ongoing and widespread factors at play that indicate demand will continue to outpace supply for the foreseeable future. Namely, the ongoing issue of builders not being able keep up with demand and the fact that so many sellers are determined to hold onto their sub 3% interest rates for as long as possible.
I’m here to offer honest, educated advice tailored to YOUR individual needs!
For those of you who have been following along, I hope that you appreciate my candid advice. If I wanted to churn through clients and maximize my own profits, I would have been shouting “DATE THE RATE, MARRY THE HOUSE!” all along and leaving it at that. However, I recognize that real estate is more complicated than a catchy cliche phrase. Instead, I’ve been keeping tabs on the evolving economic events so that my buyers and sellers can make informed decisions tailored to their individual circumstances. So for those of you out there waiting in the wings, I’ve appreciated the better work/life balance that the slower market has gifted me and my fellow agents…but I think the time to get rolling is approaching—I’m here for it! Will rates continue to roll back, or was this a false alarm? Stay tuned for more updates as this situation evolves!
Every person’s situation is unique depending on their life logistics, financing, down payment amount, etc. I’m here to help you figure out a strategy that works for YOU! As always, I’m only a call/text/email/Instagram DM/carrier pigeon message away—so don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions you have!
xoxo,
Chrystal Roggenkamp
Licensed OR REALTOR® + Architectural Designer
The Portland Hearthbeat / brokered by eXp Realty
chrystal@theportlandhearthbeat.com
503.310.9056
Nothing says November like a cozy A-Frame on Mt Hood!
