Portland Real Estate Market Update: January 2024
The real estate market is gearing up for an interesting ride!
In December, interest rates dropped a full point from their October peak and buyer activity increased slightly, but the usual holiday slowdown maintained overall stability. I’ve been stressing this sweet spot in time where better interest rates coincide with restrained competition. Well, this is it! There’s still a chance to catch a deal with homes that have been sitting on the market throughout the lull, but the window of opportunity is closing as buyers are beginning to hear about the decreasing rates.
We’re just wrapping up the inaugural weekend for 2024 listings, so I’m keeping my eyes peeled to see if there was a substantial uptick in post-holiday buyer traffic. Already, I’ve noticed a few lingering properties now donning the pending status that sellers have been anxiously waiting for. In the weeks to come, we’ll be able to gauge how many post-holiday buyers have either emerged from their house hunting hibernation or kicked off their search for the first time. My prediction for Q1 of 2024: the market will mimic the shifts we experienced in Q1 of 2023. Let me take you back..
Let’s do a little time warp back about 15 months to autumn 2022.
The market witnessed a dramatic lull in October 2022 as rates hovered around in the upper 7’s. Rates dipped in mid January, albeit only by a fraction of a percent, resulting in a sizzling hotbed of buyer activity. Bidding wars and bustling open houses becoming norm once again. That changed later in 2023 as rates shot back up to unpalatable levels, but that period of market revitalization showed us that buyers have moved on from dreams of 3% interest rates and were willing to pounce at the first sign of lower rates. Fast forward to 2024—do you see the parallels here? There’s one crucial deviation from this time last year, when inflation was still out of control and the Fed was wishy washy over when they would start to ease up on rates.
In contrast, the Fed has recently signaled with confidence that rate cuts are coming soon. Unfortunately for buyers, this will mean increased competition and an upward pressure on home prices.
The only thing that can change that trajectory would be an increase in inventory. Keep in mind, though, that a majority of homeowners are coveting super low rates after refinancing over the pandemic. Some might try out landlord life in an attempt to hold onto that low rate, adding more buyers into the mix without adding inventory. Boomers aging out of larger homes might opt to downsize tohomes fit for aging in place—which will open up some inventory in upper price points while increasing demand for single level starter homes. Anecdotally, I’ve been reaching out to my agent community to ask about their pipeline of clients. While some indicated a slew of sellers listing in January, the great majority said their pipeline was dominated by buyers waiting for better rates.
While my informal surveys are by no means scientific, it’s good intel that suggests a buying frenzy is on the horizon. It won’t be as intense as what the market experienced throughout the pandemic, but I wouldn’t be surprised if things get wild for the most well-presented homes. If you’re looking to buy—don’t hold out for too long if you can help it! If you’re looking to sell, now is the time to start prepping for a hot spring and summer market! I’m working with a few lovely sellers right now helping to get their homes in tip-top shape so that they can shine above any competing listings like freshly cut diamonds, ensuring that they’ll get top dollar even if more sellers come out of the woodwork.
I’m here to be a friendly resource if you’re considering making a move, so don’t hesitate to reach out!
Chrystal Roggenkamp
Licensed OR REALTOR® + Architectural Designer
The Portland Hearthbeat / brokered by eXp Realty
chrystal@theportlandhearthbeat.com
503.310.9056
