Portland Market Update: October 2023
As we welcome the fall season with open arms, you might be wondering if we're in for the usual autumn real estate dance where the market sees a bit of a boost after a late summer lull. Well, hold onto your hats, because the plot is still unfolding—we've got data from September, which mostly represents homes that went into contract during the August lull. Here’s how the September 2023 stats compare to August 2023.
New listings are down by 7.2%
Pending sales have taken a dip, down 11.9%
Sold homes are down 20%
Inventory has increased from 2.2 to 2.9. That means more homes to go around per buyer, folks!
Home prices are hanging tight, with the median purchase price for the Portland Metro Area is $537,400 increasing by a slight .3% since August.
As far as what I’ve been feeling in the autumn air, there seems to be a bit more pep in everyone's step compared to a month ago, despite rates being at a 20-year high. I’ve noticed some great houses lingering on the market, but also experienced some brutal bidding wars for ones that have that special sauce—stellar locations, uniquely desirable features, good staging/design, and premium marketing.
Now, let’s talk about rates. They kind of suck right now—that’s nothing new if you’ve been keeping up with my market updates. You might remember this time last year when rates skyrocketed and the market seemed to stop in its tracks. Welp, rates are actually higher now than they were back then. The difference is that the general public is no longer being bombarded with clickbait articles boasting ill-informed, fear mongering headlines about the market. The market never crashed as many feared and there’s no logical reason to think it will happen in the near distant future (barring any unforeseen catastrophic events, of course!). As news outlets have moved on to focusing on more important things, like Trump mugshots and Taylor Swift’s new boyfriend, enough buyers have begrudgingly come to terms with the current rates to keep the market chugging along.
Recent news from the Fed leads us to believe that rates will remain high for longer than we originally anticipated. Earlier this year, all signs pointed to rates beginning their descent in late fall/early winter. Now that’s looking like more of a possibility for spring of 2024—but only time will tell! One of two things needs to happen before rates will ease up: either buyers need to stop buying (decrease demand) OR sellers need to start selling (increased supply). Right now, ongoing buyer demand paired with low inventory is keeping the Fed scratching their heads as to how they will ever get this inflation under control.
One thing remains fairly certain, though: when rates DO come down we can expect a feeding frenzy (I personally have a gut feeling this will happen when rates reach the low 6’s/upper 5’s) . Sellers will still be hesitant to give up their low pandemic rates, while the backlog of buyers who’ve been waiting for rates to drop will come out of the woodwork. We might see some foreclosures from folks who overleveraged their equity, but I don’t think it will be enough to make a significant dent in the market.
What does this mean? For buyers, it means that there are good opportunities out there with less competition, but offer strategy is still key if you want to land the extra dreamy ones. This market is like a treasure hunt with a twist—it's still a rat race for the shiny diamonds, but there are hidden gems sitting out there if you’re able to look past outdated finishes and/or bad staging. There’s little I love more than helping buyers recognize the good opportunities that everyone else is overlooking, but I’m still having great success getting offers accepted when the competition is high.
For high rolling buyers, it’s particularly slim pickins out there, but I’ve seen some fierce competition for some houses. I have some buyers who are about to get the keys to an AMAZINGLY charming craftsman abode bordering the Ladd’s Addition rose garden, but WHEW did we have to fight for it! Meanwhile, similar-ish houses that aren’t quite as dialed in are waiting for buyers to come along.
For sellers, this means that you can still have great success even in the current market conditions, but investing in listing prep, staging, and an agent who offers premium marketing is important if you want top dollar. Serious buyers are still in the game—itching to upsize, downsize, switch school districts, or make that first-time purchase—they are just less plentiful these days. Two years ago, a good Realtor used to be the difference between your house selling for 10% over asking or 20% over asking. Today, it often means the difference between receiving multiple offers the first weekend versus sitting on the market and being forced to price drop until an opportunistic buyer comes along looking for a deal. [Shameless self pitch: there are few if any agents out there that go to the lengths that I do to make your listing stand out amongst the bunch. If you know anyone needing to sell, I’d love the opportunity to show them everything I do to make sure my listings sell for top dollar!]
The real estate journey is a rollercoaster ride! Buyers and sellers are dancing to their own beats, but whether you're buying or selling, it all boils down to preparation and setting the right expectations. And I’m here to help you navigate it all! Ready to make your move? Let's chat—your real estate dreams are just a conversation away!
Chrystal Roggenkamp
Licensed OR REALTOR® + Architectural Designer
The Portland Hearthbeat / brokered by eXp Realty
chrystal@theportlandhearthbeat.com
503.310.9056
